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The AUD/USD closed lower at 0.6272, influenced by a mixed Australian jobs report, US dollar short covering, and uncertainty surrounding China's stimulus. Key local drivers this week include the Monthly CPI data on Wednesday, with expectations of a slight decline in inflation, and speculation about US tariff specifics ahead of the April 2 deadline, which could support the Australian dollar. If the AUD/USD breaks below 0.6250/30, it may signal a retest of the 0.6087 low.
AUD/USD ended last week at 0.6326, marking its fifth gain in six weeks, driven by concerns over US trade policies and improving risk sentiment. Key influences this week include US trade policy, interest rate meetings, and Australia's employment report, expected to show a gain of 20,000 jobs with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. A stronger jobs report could lead the RBA to hold rates steady in April, while technical analysis suggests potential for further gains towards the 200-day moving average at 0.6525-0.6535.
The AUD/USD fell 2.32% last week, marking its worst performance since November 2023, driven by global concerns, tariff uncertainties, and a soft consumer sentiment report. As Australia prepares for its Q4 GDP release, forecasts suggest a modest growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, while the RBA anticipates further rate cuts. The currency remains under pressure, with risks skewed to the downside as it trades below the 200-day moving average.
US tech stocks face a sell-off, with NVIDIA dropping 8.5% post-earnings amid economic concerns and tariff risks. Key events this week include Australia's GDP data, the ECB's anticipated rate cut, the US non-farm payrolls report, and China's inflation figures, which are expected to show ongoing deflationary pressures.
The Australian dollar strengthened following a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and robust jobs data, closing last week at 0.6356. Despite a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, strong immigration contributed to a record participation rate, while wage growth slowed to 3.2% YoY. Market attention is now on upcoming inflation data, with expectations for January's CPI to rise to 2.6% YoY as energy rebates end.
The Australian dollar has reached a two-month high of $0.6350, driven by a weakening US dollar and a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA's recent cautious tone regarding inflation contrasts with global dovish trends, enhancing the currency's appeal. Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with potential targets at $0.65 and $0.67, although external factors like tariff announcements could impact its ascent.
The AUD/USD reached a nine-week high at 0.6351, driven by easing US tariff pressures, optimism for a ceasefire in Ukraine, and weaker US economic data that bolstered expectations for Fed rate cuts. As the RBA prepares for its meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.85% is anticipated, marking the first reduction since November 2020, with further cuts expected later in the year. The currency pair faces resistance around 0.6350/0.6370, with potential for a rally towards 0.6560 if it breaks through.
AUD/USD ended last week at 0.6314, marking a 2% gain, but faced pressure from weak Chinese PMI data and concerns over a new AI model from China. The focus now shifts to Australia's Q4 CPI release, with expectations of a 0.2% rise in headline inflation, potentially prompting the RBA to cut interest rates in February.
The AUD/USD has declined significantly, closing at 0.6217, nearly 9% lower than the start of 2024, largely due to offshore factors including Trump's election victory, which is expected to spur US fiscal expansion and higher interest rates. The fate of the currency pair in 2025 hinges on the implementation of Trump's policies, particularly regarding tariffs on China, with potential increases likely to pressure the AUD. Technical analysis indicates critical support levels at 0.6199 and 0.6170, with a fall below these levels risking a drop towards 0.6000.
AUD/USD fell to a two-year low of 0.6251, down 1.75% last week, following a hawkish Fed interest rate cut and a MYEFO report indicating larger Australian budget deficits. The RBA's upcoming meeting minutes are expected to reflect a dovish tone amid weaker economic activity, with a 58% chance of a rate cut in February. A break below the 0.6170 support level could lead to a test of the 0.6000 mark, while a rebound above 0.6350 may signal easing downside risks.
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